This price has not changed since 2026-09-29 20:09 UTC. It reflects the last observed trade rather than current market value, and this page is excluded from our sitemap for that reason.
Community price on backpack.tf: 7.50–8.00 keys, last changed 2024-10-05 (2.1y ago). The live quote above, 6.97 keys, is 7% lower and last moved 1mo ago. They are different measures: the quote is what traders and bots are asking and bidding on the classifieds right now, and it moves for thousands of items every day; the community price is a suggestion accepted by vote, which changes only when someone argues it should. A quote well away from the vote is usually a price that is about to be re-argued. Community prices from backpack.tf, read under an hour ago.
Steam Market asking price: $18.07 — the lowest of 2 listings for the Polar Forecast effect when we looked on 2026-10-31 01:48 UTC (5d ago). This is what a seller is asking, not what anything sold for. Steam pays out in Steam wallet funds, not cash, and Valve takes roughly 15% at the till — so asking prices there run well above the 6 keys, 61.66 ref shown above, which comes from the keys-and-metal market on backpack.tf. The two are different markets and are never blended. Steam lists the item as “Unusual Elf Defense”, with no effect in the name — the effect comes from the individual listing.
Price history
Interactive chart. Press the left and right arrow keys to move along the series, Home or End to jump to either end, Escape to clear.
The key axis converts at today's rate. Prices are recorded in metal, so a line that is flat in keys followed the key rate rather than standing still.
| Observed (UTC) | Sell | Buy |
|---|---|---|
| 25 SEP 2025 · 03:29 UTC | 8.00 keys | 6.12 keys |
| 9 OCT 2025 · 10:20 UTC | 7.71 keys | 6.46 keys |
| 25 OCT 2025 · 18:29 UTC | 6.98 keys | 5.91 keys |
| 15 JAN 2026 · 12:23 UTC | 7.79 keys | 5.24 keys |
| 2 MAR 2026 · 06:42 UTC | 7.28 keys | 5.97 keys |
| 17 MAR 2026 · 02:08 UTC | 7.69 keys | 6.31 keys |
| 9 MAY 2026 · 18:30 UTC | 7.77 keys | 6.63 keys |
| 24 MAY 2026 · 22:32 UTC | 7.70 keys | 6.10 keys |
| 8 JUN 2026 · 20:33 UTC | 7.70 keys | 6.33 keys |
| 22 JUN 2026 · 02:12 UTC | 7.87 keys | 6.54 keys |
| 8 JUL 2026 · 01:11 UTC | 6.42 keys | 5.58 keys |
| 30 JUL 2026 · 00:45 UTC | 7.44 keys | 6.46 keys |
| 8 AUG 2026 · 13:12 UTC | 7.42 keys | 6.44 keys |
| 26 AUG 2026 · 12:09 UTC | 6.10 keys | 5.30 keys |
| 30 AUG 2026 · 04:10 UTC | 7.74 keys | 6.73 keys |
| 3 SEP 2026 · 14:08 UTC | 7.56 keys | 6.57 keys |
| 6 SEP 2026 · 08:09 UTC | 8.02 keys | 6.98 keys |
| 29 SEP 2026 · 20:09 UTC | 6.97 keys | 6.05 keys |
| 8 OCT 2026 · 19:10 UTC | 7.05 keys | 6.14 keys |
| 12 OCT 2026 · 11:08 UTC | 7.64 keys | 6.64 keys |
| 12 OCT 2026 · 23:08 UTC | 7.86 keys | 6.83 keys |
| 13 OCT 2026 · 07:09 UTC | 8.08 keys | 7.02 keys |
| 18 OCT 2026 · 05:08 UTC | 8.10 keys | 7.04 keys |
| 29 OCT 2026 · 15:12 UTC | 7.94 keys | 6.69 keys |
| 1 NOV 2026 · 17:12 UTC | 7.88 keys | 6.64 keys |
| 1 NOV 2026 · 23:12 UTC | 7.93 keys | 6.69 keys |
| 2 NOV 2026 · 05:12 UTC | 7.98 keys | 6.73 keys |
| 2 NOV 2026 · 11:12 UTC | 7.99 keys | 6.75 keys |
| 2 NOV 2026 · 15:12 UTC | 8.00 keys | 6.76 keys |
| 2 NOV 2026 · 21:12 UTC | 8.01 keys | 6.78 keys |
| 3 NOV 2026 · 03:12 UTC | 8.00 keys | 6.77 keys |
| 3 NOV 2026 · 09:11 UTC | 7.99 keys | 6.76 keys |
| 3 NOV 2026 · 13:11 UTC | 7.98 keys | 6.76 keys |
| 3 NOV 2026 · 21:12 UTC | 7.92 keys | 6.71 keys |
| 4 NOV 2026 · 03:12 UTC | 7.93 keys | 6.72 keys |
| 4 NOV 2026 · 07:12 UTC | 7.95 keys | 6.75 keys |
| 4 NOV 2026 · 13:12 UTC | 7.96 keys | 6.77 keys |
| 4 NOV 2026 · 17:12 UTC | 7.95 keys | 6.76 keys |
| 5 NOV 2026 · 01:13 UTC | 7.95 keys | 6.76 keys |
| 5 NOV 2026 · 09:13 UTC | 7.95 keys | 6.77 keys |
Price history in numbers
78 readings since 25 Sep 2025Over the last 30 days the Polar Forecast Elf Defense's sell price ranged from 7.05 keys to 8.10 keys and is up 12.7% after 29 moves. Over a year it ranged from 4.35 keys to 8.10 keys (down 0.1%). Today's 7.95 keys sits at the top of its range: the lowest we have recorded is 4.35 keys (22 Aug 2026) and the highest 8.10 keys (18 Oct 2026). The price has moved 65 times since we began recording it — about once every 6 days.
| Window | Low | High | Change | Moves | Readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 7.05 keys | 8.10 keys | +12.7% | 29 | 42 |
| 90 days | 4.35 keys | 8.10 keys | +7.2% | 41 | 54 |
| a year | 4.35 keys | 8.10 keys | −0.1% | 60 | 73 |
Details
| SKU | 31256;5;u218 |
|---|---|
| Last price change | 2026-09-29 20:09 UTC |
| Key rate when recorded | 63.44 ref |
Same effect, other items
the effect across the catalogue| Item | Value | Updated |
|---|---|---|
| 350 keys | 12mo ago | |
| 148 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 106 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 103 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 96.6 keys | 3mo ago | |
| 89.7 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 85.3 keys | 2mo ago | |
| 78.3 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 76.2 keys | 2mo ago | |
| 71.9 keys | 12mo ago |
Other effects on the Elf Defense
same item, different effect| Item | Value | Updated |
|---|---|---|
| 70.8 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 51.4 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 48.4 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 40.3 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 27.8 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 24.5 keys | 2mo ago | |
| 21.7 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 18.7 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 14.0 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 12.7 keys | 1mo ago |
Priced similarly
across the catalogue| Item | Value | Updated |
|---|---|---|
| 7.02 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 6.88 keys | 3mo ago | |
| 6.90 keys | 2mo ago | |
| 6.90 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 6.98 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 7.02 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 7.02 keys | 1mo ago | |
| 6.88 keys | 1mo ago |