Community price on backpack.tf: 11.0 keys, last changed 2019-04-02 (7.4y ago). The live quote above, 16.1 keys, is 47% higher and last moved 4h ago. They are different measures: the quote is what traders and bots are asking and bidding on the classifieds right now, and it moves for thousands of items every day; the community price is a suggestion accepted by vote, which changes only when someone argues it should. A quote well away from the vote is usually a price that is about to be re-argued. Community prices from backpack.tf, read under an hour ago.
Steam Market asking price: $54.28 — the lowest of one listing for the Smoking effect when we looked on 2026-09-02 01:31 UTC (4d ago). This is what a seller is asking, not what anything sold for. Steam pays out in Steam wallet funds, not cash, and Valve takes roughly 15% at the till — so asking prices there run well above the 16 keys, 8.11 ref shown above, which comes from the keys-and-metal market on backpack.tf. The two are different markets and are never blended. Steam lists the item as “Unusual Your Worst Nightmare”, with no effect in the name — the effect comes from the individual listing.
Price history
34 observations
Interactive chart. Press the left and right arrow keys to move along the series, Home or End to jump to either end, Escape to clear.
The key axis converts at today's rate. Prices are recorded in metal, so a line that is flat in keys followed the key rate rather than standing still.
Smoking Your Worst Nightmare sell price, 2025-09-25 to 2026-09-05: 34 observations, from 12.4 keys to 16.1 keys.
Observed (UTC)
Sell
Buy
25 SEP 2025 · 03:29 UTC
12.4 keys
10.0 keys
30 SEP 2025 · 20:33 UTC
11.3 keys
9.25 keys
9 OCT 2025 · 08:16 UTC
10.8 keys
9.68 keys
19 OCT 2025 · 20:02 UTC
10.3 keys
9.25 keys
25 OCT 2025 · 16:21 UTC
9.80 keys
8.85 keys
10 NOV 2025 · 00:24 UTC
9.80 keys
8.82 keys
2 MAY 2026 · 12:32 UTC
16.3 keys
9.98 keys
9 MAY 2026 · 06:31 UTC
17.3 keys
8.86 keys
16 MAY 2026 · 00:31 UTC
17.1 keys
10.6 keys
2 JUN 2026 · 10:29 UTC
17.3 keys
10.8 keys
10 JUN 2026 · 00:31 UTC
16.9 keys
10.6 keys
22 JUN 2026 · 02:10 UTC
17.5 keys
9.97 keys
3 JUL 2026 · 11:12 UTC
13.1 keys
11.4 keys
8 JUL 2026 · 13:11 UTC
12.5 keys
10.9 keys
19 JUL 2026 · 08:44 UTC
11.1 keys
9.68 keys
29 JUL 2026 · 04:46 UTC
13.1 keys
11.3 keys
4 AUG 2026 · 09:12 UTC
16.0 keys
13.9 keys
13 AUG 2026 · 19:12 UTC
16.7 keys
14.6 keys
21 AUG 2026 · 00:08 UTC
7.95 keys
6.91 keys
22 AUG 2026 · 00:08 UTC
8.07 keys
7.02 keys
22 AUG 2026 · 12:08 UTC
8.23 keys
7.16 keys
23 AUG 2026 · 00:08 UTC
8.48 keys
7.37 keys
27 AUG 2026 · 02:09 UTC
8.67 keys
7.53 keys
27 AUG 2026 · 14:08 UTC
8.81 keys
7.66 keys
28 AUG 2026 · 11:22 UTC
11.9 keys
10.4 keys
28 AUG 2026 · 22:09 UTC
12.1 keys
10.5 keys
29 AUG 2026 · 10:09 UTC
12.2 keys
10.6 keys
1 SEP 2026 · 14:08 UTC
15.2 keys
13.2 keys
2 SEP 2026 · 02:08 UTC
15.4 keys
13.4 keys
2 SEP 2026 · 14:08 UTC
15.9 keys
13.8 keys
3 SEP 2026 · 22:08 UTC
16.3 keys
14.2 keys
4 SEP 2026 · 10:08 UTC
16.7 keys
14.5 keys
5 SEP 2026 · 08:08 UTC
16.1 keys
14.0 keys
5 SEP 2026 · 20:08 UTC
16.1 keys
14.0 keys
Price history in numbers
34 readings since 25 Sep 2025
Over the last 30 days the Smoking Your Worst Nightmare's sell price ranged from 7.95 keys to 16.7 keys and is down 3.6% after 16 moves. Over a year it ranged from 7.95 keys to 17.5 keys (up 30.6%). Today's 16.1 keys sits in the upper third of its range: the lowest we have recorded is 7.95 keys (21 Aug 2026) and the highest 17.5 keys (22 Jun 2026). The price has moved 32 times since we began recording it — about once every 11 days.
Gentle Manne's Service Medal